Oscar Predictions 2016

LATEST UPDATE: 2/25/16 – Costumes, Sound (both), Short Films
Previous updates: 2/22/16, 2/10/16, 1/31/16, 1/27/16

Predictions are numbered in order of likelihood, with “(alt.)” signifying the strongest challengers. Those few races without an alternate listed are the ones with a clearly obvious frontrunner (Leo for Actor, for instance).

These are likely to change over the next several weeks. Check back often, as I will keep it updated as the various industry guilds and other precursors announce their winner.

Big Short

Best Picture
– The Big Short
2 (alt.) – The Revenant
3 – Spotlight
4 – Mad Max: Fury Road
5 – The Martian
6 – Room
7 – Bridge of Spies
8 – Brooklyn

Best Director
✔ – Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
2 (alt.) – Adam McKay, The Big Short
3 – George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
4 – Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5 – Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Best Actor
✔ – Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2 – Matt Damon, The Martian
3 – Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
4 – Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
5 – Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Actress
✔ – Brie Larson, Room
2 – Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3 – Cate Blanchett, Carol
4 – Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5 – Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Best Supporting Actor
✔ – Sylvester Stallone, Creed
2 – Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
3 – Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
4 – Christian Bale, The Big Short
5 – Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Best Supporting Actress
✔ – Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2 (alt.) – Rooney Mara, Carol
3 – Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4 – Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5 – Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Best Adapted Screenplay
– The Big Short, Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
2 – Room, Emma Donoghue
3 – The Martian, Drew Goddard
4 – Brooklyn, Nick Hornby
5 – Carol, Phyllis Nagy

Best Original Screenplay
– Spotlight, Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy
2 (alt.) – Straight Outta Compton, Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus, and Andrea Berloff
3 – Inside Out, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie del Carmen
4 – Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, and Joel Coen
5 – Ex Machina, Alex Garland

Best Animated Feature
– Inside Out
2 (alt.) – Anomalisa
3 – Shaun the Sheep Movie
4 – Boy and the World
5 – When Marnie Was There

Best Cinematography
✔ – The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
2 (alt.)– Mad Max: Fury Road, John Seale
3 – Sicario, Roger Deakins
4 – The Hateful Eight, Robert Richardson
5 – Carol, Ed Lachman

Best Costume Design
– The Danish Girl, Paco Delgado
2 (alt.) – Mad Max: Fury Road, Jenny Beavan
3 – Cinderella, Sandy Powell
4 – The Revenant, Jacqueline West
5Carol, Sandy Powell

Best Film Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road, Margaret Sixel
2 (alt.) The Big Short, Hank Corwin
3 – Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey
4 – The Revenant, Stephen Mirrione
5 – Spotlight, Tom McArdle

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
2 (alt.)The Revenant
3 – The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared

Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
2 (alt.) – Star Wars: The Force Awakens, John Williams
3 – Carol, Carter Burwell
4 – Bridge of Spies, Thomas Newman
5 – Sicario, Johann Johannsson

Best Original Song
✔ – “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
Music and lyrics by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga
2 (alt.) “Simple Song #3” from Youth
Music and lyrics by David Lang
3 – “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
Music and lyrics by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith
4 – “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Music and lyrics by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio
5 – “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
Music by J. Ralph and lyrics by Antony Hegarty

Best Production Design
✔ – Mad Max: Fury Road
2 (alt.) – The Revenant
3 – The Danish Girl
4 – Bridge of Spies
5 – The Martian

Best Sound Editing
✔ – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2 (alt.) – Mad Max: Fury Road
3 – The Revenant
4 – The Martian
5 – Sicario

Best Sound Mixing
– Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2 (alt.) – Mad Max: Fury Road
3 – The Revenant
4 – The Martian
5 – Bridge of Spies

Best Visual Effects
✔ – Mad Max: Fury Road
2 (alt.) – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 – The Revenant
4 – Ex Machina
5 – The Martian

Best Foreign Language Film
✔ – Son of Saul, Hungary
2 – Mustang, France
3 – Theeb, Jordan
4 – A War, Denmark
5 – Embrace of the Serpent, Colombia

Best Documentary — Feature
✔ – Amy
2 – What Happened, Miss Simone?
3 – Cartel Land
4 – The Look of Silence
5 – Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Best Documentary — Short
✔ – Body Team 12
2 – Chau, Beyond the Lines
3 – Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
4 – Last Day of Freedom
5 – A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Best Animated Short
✔ – World of Tomorrow
2 (alt.) – Sanjay’s Super Team
3 – Bear Story
4 – We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
5 – Prologue

Best Live Action Short
– Stutterer
2 – Ave Maria
3 – Shok
4 – Day One
5 – Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)

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