Monthly Archives: January 2014

PGA: IT’S A TIE!!!

gravity-12years

BREAKING:

Gravity and 12 Years a Slave have TIED the Producer’s Guild of America (PGA)’s “The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures” They just finished announcing their awards and the results are shocking. This is the first tie in PGA history!

It seemed that American Hustle had the lead after winning Best Ensemble on Saturday night at the SAG awards. but now we’re right back to that big split I’ve been talking about.

This is a better outcome that I could’ve ever hoped for, because – as I mentioned before – it keeps the season going with wonderful uncertainty. Whoever wins the DGA next week still might take lead frontrunner status. But even then, this all important PGA tie means that NOTHING will be certain until the final envelope is opened on Oscar night.

THIS IS SO EXCITING!!!

(EDIT: See the full list of SAG and PGA winners, along with my further analysis, here.)

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SAG, PGA This Weekend – What to Expect

american-hustle

The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and Producers Guild of America (PGA) will both present their winners this weekend (tonight and tomorrow night, respectively). This usually marks the beginning of the end of the awards race: The guilds are the most predictive factor in the Oscars, and these two, plus the Directors Guild next weekend are the most important guilds of all.

The Actors are the largest voting block in the Academy, so they carry the most weight. Almost every Best Picture Oscar winner has come with a corresponding DGA win for the director. And perhaps most importantly, since a crucial rule change in 2009 every film that has won the PGA has gone on to win Best Picture.

In 2009 the Academy began using a complex preferential balloting system in their top category (and only the top category). The only other group to use this system is the PGA. The PGA is also has a large crossover membership with AMPAS, and their tastes are very similar. It’s the perfect Oscar practice run.

“But This Year’s Different!”

It’s always easy to say this year is unique. Every year is unique. Last year was insanely unique, in which the front runner winning everything didn’t even have a director nomination from the Academy, and in fact only 2 of the DGA nominees matched Oscar. Yet even then, the same film took SAG, PGA, DGA, and Best Picture. “Different” is a question of degree.

Still, I actually do think this year is different, because for the first time there is no clear frontrunner yet. We may have one in 3 days, but as of right now, it’s completely up in the air. I am going out on a limb and predicting all three to split up each of the main guilds. It’s a gutsy choice, if I do say so myself – most pundits would call me crazy. But I think each one has a specific angle for a particular guild.

  • American Hustle will win the SAG ensemble. This is the easiest call. This is an ensemble acting award, not overall film, so they do occasionally stray from the frontrunner. Gravity isn’t nominated here, and wouldn’t win even if it were because it’s “ensemble” is mostly just one person. 12 Years has a great ensemble, and three of them have gotten every nomination possible. But Hustle is the showier acting showcase. Plus, despite only one individual nomination in their own awards, the actors branch gave the film nominations in all 4 acting categories at the Oscars. (If 12 Years somehow pulls off the upset, then that it. The race would be just about over.)
  • 12 Years a Slave will win the PGA. This is the hardest call. This is the one that could really conceivably go any direction. The only thing we have to go on is other precursor awards. Gravity has won it’s share, and Hustle is the new upstart that’s been making it’s way steadily up the ranks as of late. But 12 Years has the majority of wins under it’s belt. I think that gives it the edge. (If Hustle wins this, the others are done for. It will have pulled it’s way comfortable out front.)
  • Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón) will win the DGA. There’s a narrative for each: David O. Russell (Hustle) is just about due after his 3rd major player in as many years, and Steve McQueen (12 Years) may be considered infinitely more overdue, as no black director has ever won. But Cuarón has been the most consistent winner so far this season. There have been more splits in precursor awards than ever, and he’s been cleaning up even when the other two are winning various Best Picture awards. His achievement is just too big to ignore. (If either of the others win, look for that film to take the lead at the Oscars.)

So that’s the way I see it playing out. I hope I’m right, because if I am it means the race will keep on being exciting and unexpected far longer than usual. (It already lasted longer than usual!) If I’m wrong, I expect we’ll know by Monday who our frontrunner will be, and for that frontrunner to be confirmed next weekend at the DGA.

Oh, before I forget, The Critics Choice Awards happened this past Thursday, in case you cared to know. They’re about as important as the Globes (practice for speeches and that’s about it), and a fraction as fun. I pretty much ignored them. But they did give the same split between Picture and Director, which only serves to reinforce my point.

Here’s the rest of my predictions for this weekend’s shows – SAG first, then PGA – with the predicted winners in bold. (As with the Golden Globes, my guesses on most of the TV categories were basically pulled out of my ass.)

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS

FILM

Ensemble

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • August: Osage County
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • The Butler

Actor

  • Bruce Dern, Nebraska
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave (alternate)
  • Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
  • Matthew McConaghey, Dallas Buyers Club
  • Forest Whitaker, The Butler

Actress

  • Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  • Sandra Bullock, Gravity
  • Judi Dench, Philomena
  • Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks
  • Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Supporting Actor

  • Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  • Daniel Bruhl, Rush
  • James Gandolfini, Enough Said
  • Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
  • Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress

  • Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
  • Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  • Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
  • Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
  • June Squibb, Nebraska

Stunt Ensemble

  • All is Lost
  • Fast & Furious 6
  • Lone Survivor
  • Rush
  • The Wolverine

===

TELEVISION

Ensemble, Drama

  • Boardwalk Empire
  • Breaking Bad
  • Downton Abbey
  • Game of Thrones
  • Homeland

Ensemble, Comedy

  • 30 Rock
  • Arrested Development
  • The Big Bang Theory
  • Modern Family
  • Veep

Actress, Miniseries or TV Movie

  • Angela Bassett, Betty & Coretta
  • Helena Bonham Carter, Taylor & Burton
  • Holly Hunter, Top of the Lake
  • Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
  • Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Actor, Miniseries or TV Movie

  • Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra (alternate)
  • Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
  • Jeremy Irons, The Hollow Crown
  • Rob Lowe, Killing Kennedy
  • Al Pacino, Phil Spector

Actress, Drama

  • Claire Danes, Homeland
  • Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
  • Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
  • Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
  • Kerry Washington, Scandal

Actor, Drama

  • Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
  • Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
  • Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
  • Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
  • Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Actress, Comedy

  • Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
  • Julie Bowen, Modern Family
  • Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
  • Tina Fey, 30 Rock
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Actor, Comedy

  • Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
  • Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
  • Ty Burrell, Modern Family
  • Don Cheadle, House of Lies
  • Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Stunt Ensemble, Comedy or Drama

  • Boardwalk Empire
  • Breaking Bad
  • Game of Thrones
  • Homeland
  • The Walking Dead

PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS

Theatrical Motion Picture

  • American Hustle
  • Blue Jasmine
  • Captain Phillips
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • Gravity
  • Her
  • Nebraska
  • Saving Mr. Banks
  • 12 Years a Slave
  • The Wolf of Wall Street

Animated Theatrical Motion Picture

  • The Croods
  • Despicable Me 2
  • Epic
  • Frozen
  • Monsters University

Documentary

  • Far Out Isn’t Enough: The Tomi Ungerer Story
  • Life According to Sam
  • A Place at the Table
  • We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks
  • Which Way is the Front Line From Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington

Long-Form Television

  • American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
  • Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
  • Killing Kennedy (National Geographic Channel)
  • Phil Spector (HBO)
  • Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

3 Films ‘Hustle’ for the Lead – Oscar Nominations Breakdown

gravity 12 years hustle split

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts ad Sciences (AMPAS) gave us plenty of surprises – both good and bad – when they announced their 86th Annual Oscar nominations this morning.

The big story is American Hustle, which tied Gravity for the lead with 10 nods each, followed closely by 12 Years a Slave with 9. Any one of them could still win, but this proves it really is a 3-way race. All 3 got the crucial Picture/Director/Editing trifecta that is often necessary to go the distance.

All 9 of the Best Picture nominees got more nominations than any of the other films. A majority of the different branches seemed to be on the same page. I feel like this kind of symmetry is actually pretty rare. (Scroll to the bottom of my complete nominations list for a list of total nominations per film.)

I’m actually pretty proud of a decent showing in my own predictions. (Scroll down to see my brag list and how I did on each category.) But there were a fair number selections and snubs that few people saw coming – including at least one that NOBODY could’ve guessed.

The Good…

  • A much stronger-than-expected showing for The Wolf of Wall Street and Dallas Buyers Club was very heartening to see.
  • Philomena for Best Pic, expected but not guaranteed.
  • American Hustle got nods in all 4 acting categories (the best thing about the movie). This is extremely rare, and yet it’s 2 years in a row for a David O. Russell film.
  • Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor. I predicted it, but most pundits figuring he was in 6th place. Now that he’s in, I think he actually has a decent chance for the win, though it’s still a tight race.
  • Sally Hawkins was excellent in Blue Jasmine I’m happy to see her remembered here.
  • The Hobbit’s FX and dual Sound nods. Despite the series’ chronic bloating, it still continues to break new ground on the tech front.
  • Ernest & Celestine!!!
  • Get A Horse!

The Bad…

  • American Hustle‘s tied for the most nominations makes it even more likely to steal the ultimate win from Gravity and 12 Years a Slave (two vastly superior films).
  • Zero nominations for Rush, The Butler, Pacific Rim, or The Hunger Games.
  • Captain Phillips had a worse showing than expected, with both Tom Hanks and director Paul Greengrass missing out on nominations.
  • Part of the Rush shutout, Daniel Bruhl was passed over for one of the very best performances of the year.
  • Part of The Butler shutout, Oprah Winfrey (the best part of that film) was denied.
  • The Coen Bros. missed a screenplay nod for Inside Llewyn Davis. The film itself only managed 2 mentions.
  • 12 Years a Slave’s stunning cinematography was ignored.
  •  Part of The Hunger Games shutout, the amazing costumes were not mentioned, nor the memorable Makeup & Hairsyling
  • Speaking of M&H: the Academy seemed to love American Hustle, so how did it miss out here for those amazing hairdos?
  • No love for Hanz Zimmer’s excellent score for 12 Years a Slave, or Alex Ebert’s work on All Is Lost.
  • No Pacific Rim for visual effects is a travesty. If it weren’t for Gravity, I would’ve pegged it for the de facto winner.
  • Monster’s University is Pixar’s second ever miss for Animated Feature, after Cars 2.
  • Blackfish really deserved a nomination, and it could’ve used the extra publicity to help its valiant cause.
  • Stories We Tell was also widely expected to compete for the documentary win. While I haven’t seen it yet, everything I’ve read makes me disheartened that it was left out.

The WTF??!?!…

  • Best song. This category is notorious for providing some real head-scratchers year after year. (Last year they included a little-known documentary, and the year before that they only nominated TWO songs!) This year is no different, with an unexpected snub for Lana del Rey’s “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby.
  • But the real shot of crazy here is “Alone Yet Not Alone” from a film of the same name. A film which NOBODY has ever even heard of, let alone seen. It doesn’t appear on Metacritic, Rotten Tomatoes, or Box Office Mojo. It turns out it’s a religious film with a fairly offensive sounding synopsis, made purely for the Christian market. So how the hell did it get nominated? Perhaps because one of the composers is head of the Academy’s music branch…

Brag List
79 (+ 9 alternates) correct out of 108 predictions
2 perfect categories (+ 6 with alternates)
14 categories missed only one
5 missed two
0 missed more than two
Plus I got the one animated short I predicted, Get A Horse!

My predictions, by the numbers…

Best Picture 9/9!!!
Out: Saving Mr. Banks; Blue Jasmine

Best Director 4/5 + alternate
In: Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Out:  Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips; Spike Jonze, Her

Best Actor 4/5
In: Christian Bale, American Hustle; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Out: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Best Actress 4/5 + alternate
In: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Out: Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks

Best Supporting Actor 3/5 + alternate
In: Bradley Cooper, American Hustle; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Out: Daniel Bruhl, Rush; James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Best Supporting Actress 4/5
In: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Out: Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

Best Adapted Screenplay 5/5!!!

Best Original Screenplay 4/5 + alternate
In: Dallas Buyers Club
Out: Inside Llewyn Davis

Cinematography 4/5
In: The Grandmaster
Out: 12 Years a Slave

Costume Design 4/5
In: The Grandmaster
Out: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Editing 4/5
In: Dallas Buyers Club
Out: The Wolf of Wall Street; Rush

Makeup and Hairstyling 2/3
In: Dallas Buyers Club
Out: American Hustle; The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Score 3/5 + alternate
In: Philomena; Saving Mr. Banks
Out: 12 Years a Slave; All is Lost

Song 3/5
In: Alone Yet Not Alone (Alone Yet Not Alone); “Happy (Despicable Me 2)
Out: Young and Beautiful (The Great Gatsby); So You Know What It’s Like (Short Term 12)

Production Design 4/5 + alternate
In: Her
Out: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Sound Editing 4/5
In: The Hobbit: the Desolation of Smaug
Out: Rush

Sound Mixing 4/5
In: The Hobbit: the Desolation of Smaug
Out: All Is Lost

Visual Effects 3/5 + alternate
In: The Lone Ranger; Star Trek Into Darkness
Out: Pacific Rim; Oblivion

Foreign Film 4/5 + alternate
In: The Missing Picture
Out: The Grandmaster

Animated Feature 4/5 + alternate
In: Ernest & Celestine; Despicable Me 2
Out: Monsters University

Documentary Feature 3/5
In: Cutie and the Boxer; Dirty Wars
Out: Blackfish; Stories We Tell

Animated Short 1/1

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86th Academy Awards Nominations

Oscar statues

Nominations for the 86th Annual Academy Awards were announced this morning.

American Hustle and Gravity lead the field with 10 nominations apiece. 12 Years a Slave was close behind with 9. The 9 nominees for Best Picture were the only films to get 4 or more nods each, which is unusual. There usually at least one or two nominees that don’t get much else, or blockbusters that get a lot of technical nods but nothing in the top category. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a year where ALL the Best Picture nominees got more than all the other films.

Scroll to the bottom to see a breakdown of total nominations per film.

Stay tuned for a breakdown of the various snubs and surprises, of which there were plenty. Until then, I’ll brag that my Pest Picture predictions were spot on! Compare the final results to the rest of my predictions here.

Best motion picture of the year
“American Hustle”
“Captain Phillips”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Gravity”
“Her”
“Nebraska”
“Philomena”
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”

Best Director
David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity”
Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”
Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall STreet”

Best Actor
Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”
Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Best Actress
Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
Judi Dench, “Philomena”
Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips””
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Jonah Hill, “Wolf of Wall STreet”
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”
June Squibb, “Nebraska”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Before Midnight”
“Captain Phillips”
“Philomena”
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”

Best Original Screenplay
“American Hustle”
“Blue Jasmine”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Her”
“Nebraska”

Best Cinematography
“The Grandmaster”
“Gravity”
“Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Nebraska”
“Prisoners”

Best Costume Design
“American Hustle”
“The Grandmaster”
“The Great Gatsby”
“The Invisible Woman”
“12 Years a Slave”

Best Film Editing
“American Hustle”
“Captain Phillips”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Gravity”
“12 Years a Slave”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”
“The Lone Ranger”

Best Music (Original Score)
“The Book Thief”
“Gravity”
“Her”
“Philomena”
“Saving Mr. Banks”

Best Music (Original Song)
“Alone yet, not alone” from “Alone, Yet Not Alone”
“Happy” from DM2
“Let it Go” from “Frozen”
“The Moon Song” from “Her”
“Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”

Best Production Design
“American Hustle”
“Gravity”
“The Great Gatsby”
“Her”
“12 Years a Slave”

Best Sound Editing
“All is Lost”
“Captain Phillips”
“Gravity”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“Lone Survivor”

Best Sound Mixing
“Captain Phillips”
“Gravity”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Lone Survivor”

Best Visual Effects
“Gravity”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“Iron Man 3”
“The Lone Ranger”
“Star Trek: Into Darkness”

Best Foreign Language Film
“The Broken Circle Breakdown” (Belgium)
“The Hunt” (Denmark)
“The Great Beauty” (Italy)
“The Missing Picture” (Cambodia)
“Omar” (Palestine)

Best Animated Feature Film
“The Croods”
“Despicable Me 2”
“Ernest and Celestine”
“Frozen”
“The Wind Rises”

Best Documentary Feature
“The Act of Killing”
“Cutie and the Boxer”
“Dirty Wars”
“The Square”
“20 Feet From Stardom”

Best Documentary Short
“CaveDigger”
“Facing Fear”
“Karama Has No Walls”
“The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
“Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall”

Best Short Film (Animated)
“Feral”
“Get a Horse!”
“Mr. Hublot”
“Possessions”
“Room on the Broom”

Best Short Film (Live Action)
“A quel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)”
“Avant De Tout Perdre” (Just Before Losing Everything)”
“Helium”
“Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)”
“The Voorman Problem”

Total nominations per film:
10 – American Hustle
10 – Gravity
9 – 12 Years a Slave
6 – Captain Phillips
6 – Dallas Buyers Club
6 – Nebraska
5 – Her
5 – The Wolf of Wall Street
4 – Philomena
3 – Blue Jasmine
3 – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
2 – August: Osage County
2 – Despicable Me 2
2 – Frozen
2 – The Grandmaster
2 – The Great Gatsby
2 – Inside Llewyn Davis
2 – The Lone Ranger
2 – Lone Survivor
(All the rest got 1 each.)

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Razzie Nominations

Golden_Raspberry_Award

The “Anti-Oscars”. The Golden Raspberry Awards (or “Razzie’s”) are always a bit of fun to read. This years list is lead by Grown-Ups 2, with 8 nods.

What does it say about me that I’ve seen such a higher percentage of Oscar movies than Razzie movies? I dunno, but I take pride in the fact I’ve only had to sit through one of this year’s nominees: The Lone Ranger.

Worst Picture
“After Earth”
“Grown Ups 2”
“The Lone Ranger”
“A Madea Christmas”
“Movie 43”

Worst Director
The 13 People Who Directed, “Movie 43”
Dennis Dugan, “Grown Ups 2”
Tyler Perry, “A Madea Christmas,”, “Temptation”
M. Night Shyamalan, “After Earth”
Gore Verbinski, “The Lone Ranger”

Worst Actor
Johnny Depp, “The Lone Ranger”
Ashton Kutcher, “Jobs”
Adam Sandler, “Grown Ups 2”
Jaden Smith, “After Earth”
Sylvester Stallone, “Bullet To The Head,”  “Escape Plan,”  “Grudge Match”

Worst Actress
Halle Berry, “Movie 43, ”  “The Call”
Selena Gomez, “Getaway”
Lindsay Lohan, “The Canyons”
Tyler Perry, “A Madea Christmas”
Naomi Watts, “Diana, ”  “Movie 43”

Worst Supporting Actor
Chris Brown, “Battle Of The Year”
Larry the Cable Guy, “A Madea Christmas”
Taylor Lautner, “Grown Ups 2”
Will Smith, “After Earth”
Nick Swardson, “A Haunted House, ” “Grown Ups 2”

Worst Supporting Actress
Lady Gaga, “Machete Kills”
Salma Hayek, “Grown Ups 2”
Katherine Heigl, “The Big Wedding”
Kim Kardashian, “Tyler Perry’s Temptation”
Lindsay Lohan, “InAPPropriate Comedy,”  “Scary Movie 5”

Worst Screenplay
“After Earth,” Screenplay by Gary Whitta and M. Night Shyamalan, Story by Will Smith
“Grown Ups 2,” Written by Fred Wolfe & Adam Sandler & Tim Herlihy
“The Lone Ranger,” Screen Story & Screenplay by Ted Elliott, Justin Haythe & Terry Rosso
“A Madea Christmas,” Written by Tyler Perry
“Movie 43,” Written by 19 “Screenwriters”

Worst Screen Combo
The Entire Cast of “Groan-Ups, Too”
The Entire Cast of “Movie 43”
Lindsay Lohan & Charlie Sheen, “Scary Movie 5”
Tyler Perry & EITHER Larry the Cable Guy OR That Worn-Out Wig & Dress, “A Madea Christmas”
Jaden Smith & Will Smith on Planet Nepotism, “After Earth”

Worst Remake, Rip-off or Sequel
“Grown Ups 2”
“The Hangover Part III”
“The Lone Ranger”
“Scary Movie 5”
“The Smurfs 2”

MPSE Golden Reel Awards Nominees

MPSE_Logo

The Motion Picture Picture Sounds Editors (MPSE) Golden Reel Awards are one of my “secret” favorites. I have this fantasy that one day I’d love to learn to be a sound editor for film and video. I have pretty much zero experience in the matter and no way to fund an education, so it’s a complete pipe dream. Still, a man can dream, can’t he? A man can dream…

For a reminder on the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, check out my explanation on Cinema Audio Society (the sound mixers guild) nominations post.

The MPSE gave Gravity and 12 Years a Slave the lead with 3 nominations apiece. But the biggest news out of this list is the shocking ZERO nods for Rush. That’s unfortunate, and unexpected. I had been predicting it to get an Oscar nod (see my Oscar Predictions post). But after coming up short with both the sound editors AND mixers guilds, now I’m not so sure.

Here are the Golden Reel Awards Nominees…

Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects and Foley in an English Language Feature
“All Is Lost”
“Captain Phillips”
“Fast & Furious 6”
“Gravity”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“Iron Man 3”
“Lone Survivor”
“12 Years a Slave”

Best Sound Editing: Dialogue and ADR in an English Language Feature
“American Hustle”
“August: Osage County”
“Captain Phillips”
“Gravity”
“Her”
“Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Lone Survivor”
“12 Years a Slave”

Best Sound Editing in an Animated Feature (English or Foreign Language)
(Includes ADR, Dialogue, Sound Effects and Foley)
“Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2”
“The Croods”
“Despicable Me 2”
“Epic”
“Ernest & Celestine”
“Frozen”
“Monsters University”
“Planes”

Best Sound Editing in a Foreign Language Feature
(Includes ADR, Dialogue, Sound Effects and Foley)
“Blue Is the Warmest Color”
“The Grandmaster”
“The Past”
“Wadjda”

Best Sound Editing: Music in a Musical Feature (English or Foreign Language)
“Frozen”
“Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Justin Bieber’s Believe”
“Metallica Through the Never”

Best Sound Editing: Music in a Feature (English or Foreign Language)
“American Hustle”
“47 Ronin”
“Gravity”
“The Great Gatsby”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”
“12 Years a Slave”
“World War Z”

Best Sound Editing in a Feature Documentary Feature
“CinemAbility”
“Dirty Wars”
“Good Ol’ Freda”
“Muscle Shoals”
“Rising from Ashes”
“Sound City”
“20 Feet from Stardom”

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Oscar Predictions

Rush-Chris-Hemsworth-e1380551544303

The Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Bright and early at 5:38am Pacific (7:38am Central) Chris Hemsworth and AMPAS president Cheryl Boone Isaacs will deliver the news.

Or at least some of it. The live announcement (usually streamed online – I will update this page with a link tomorrow morning when I have it) is actually just the most major 9 categories. The rest are given in the form of a press release, and announced by most news outlets immediately after. Last year broke with tradition a little bit when Seth MacFarlane also announced Best Song live, presumably because he was one of the nominees. I don’t expect anything like that happening with Hemsworth.

Here are my final predictions for the nominations. My choices are based on a mix of the guilds and other precursors and following other awards watchers. (Kris Tapley, et al over at In Contention are some of the best in the field at predicting these things. Check out their predictions here.) There’s simply no way to predict the short categories so I pretty much skipped those, with the exception of one film I feel is guaranteed of a nomination (and probably an eventual win). I also listed one or two alternates for almost every category to help you with your own predictions.

What do you think? Any stupid choices or glaring omissions? Let me know in the comments!

Best Picture – There can be anywhere from 5-10 nominees, but I think the first 7 are pretty much locked.
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
If there are 8: The Wolf of Wall Street
If there are 9: Philomena
If there are 10: Saving Mr. Banks
Alternate: Blue Jasmine

Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alt: Spike Jonze, Her or Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaghey, Dallas Buyers Club
Alt: Robert Redfort, All Is Lost

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Alt: Amy Adams, American Hustle

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Brühl, Rush
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Alt: Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Alt: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Alt: August: Osage County

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Alt: Gravity; Dallas Buyers Club

Foreign Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Grandmaster
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
Omar
Alt: The Missing Picture

Original Song
Let it Go (Frozen)
Young and Beautiful (The Great Gatsby)
The Moon Song (Her)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom)
So You Know What It’s Like (Short Term 12)
Alt: Atlas (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)

Score
12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer
All is Lost, Alex Ebert
Gravity, Steven Price
Her, Arcade Fire
The Book Thief, John Williams
Alt: Saving Mr Banks, Thomas Newman

Animated Feature
The Croods
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
Alt: Despicable Me 2

Cinematography
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
Alt: Captain Phillips

Costume Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The Invisible Woman
Alt: Saving Mr. Banks

Editing
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
Alt: Rush

Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Alt: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Production Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Alt: Her; Saving Mr. Banks

Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush
Alt: Iron Man 3

Sound Mixing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Alt: 12 Years a Slave; Iron Man 3

Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Oblivion
Alt: Star Trek Into Darkness

Documentary Feature
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
Alt: Tim’s Vermeer

Documentary Short
n/a

Live Action Short
n/a

Animated Short
Get A Horse!
n/a

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Makeup and Hairstylists Guild Awards Nominations

The Lone Ranger johnny-depp

Lots of guild nominations today! These don’t go a long was toward predicting the Oscars, where American Hustle and Bad Grandpa (I know, right!) seem to be the likeliest bets. After that it’s more uncertain, though The Lone Ranger was the only film to manage more than one nod from the guild today.

This branch, possibly more than any other (except maybe the costumers) seem to delight in going their own way, picking films that may excel in their crafts even if they were not exactly very good films. In case you don’t remember, they’re the reason we can say “Academy Award Nominee, Norbit.”

Here’s the guild’s nominees…

FEATURE LENGTH MOTION PICTURE (FEATURE FILMS)

Best Contemporary Hairstyling
“Lee Daniels’ The Butler”
“One Chance”
“Unfinished Song”

Best Contemporary Makeup
“August: Osage County”
“One Chance”
“Prisoners”

Best Period and/or Character Hairstyling
“American Hustle”
“Jobs”
“The Lone Ranger”

Best Period and/or Character Makeup
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“The Great Gatsby”
“The Lone Ranger”

Best Special Makeup Effects
“Bad Grandpa”
“Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters”
“The Hunger Games: Catching Fire”

TELEVISION and NEW MEDIA SERIES (Episodic Television)

Best Contemporary Hairstyling
“Bates Motel”
“Breaking Bad”
“The Voice”

Best Contemporary Makeup
“Breaking Bad”
“Glee”
“Super Fun Night”

Best Period and/or Character Hairstyling
“Hell on Wheels”
“Key and Peele”
“Vikings”

Best Period and/or Character Makeup
“Boardwalk Empire”
“Hell on Wheels”
“Key and Peele”

Best Special Makeup Effects
“Longmire”
“Vikings”
“The Walking Dead”

TELEVISION MINI-SERIES or MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION (M.O.W) – CABLE NETWORK/M.O.W.s

Best Period and/or Character Hairstyling
“American Horror Story: Coven”
“Behind the Candelabra”
“Killing Lincoln”

Best Period and/or Character Makeup
“American Horror Story: Coven”
“Behind the Candelabra”
“Game of Thrones”

THEATRICAL PRODUCTIONS (LIVE STAGE – LIVE THEATER)

“Falstaff”
“Magic Flute”
“Frank Zappa’s 200 Motels”

COMMERCIALS

Best Contemporary Makeup
“Wash the Day Away (Kohler)”

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Visual Effects Society Nominations

VES-logo-post

Gravity vs. Not-Gravity. The story of FX this year is dominated by one movie. Gravity essentially won the Oscar in this category (and probably several others) within the first 5 minutes of its first screening.

That’s not to say there wasn’t a lot of impressive work on display from other films. Any other year I’d say Pacific Rim had this in the bag. But like The Lord of the Rings, Avatar, and The Life of Pi, there’s just no competition with the groundbreaking, industry-changing behemoth in the room.

That said, the fun of the Visual Effects Society (VES) Awards, is all the OTHER categories. Seriously, they have a category for EVERYTHING – “Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature Motion Picture”??? Check out the guild’s nominations below…

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Visual Effects-Driven Feature Motion Picture
“Gravity”
“Iron Man 3”
“Pacific Rim”
“Star Trek: Into Darkness”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture
“Rush”
“The Great Gatsby”
“The Lone Ranger”
“The Secret Life of Walter Mitty”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”
“White House Down”

Outstanding Animation in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
“Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2”
“Despicable Me 2”
“Frozen”
“Monsters University”
“The Croods”

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Broadcast Program
“Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.” – Pilot
“Almost Human”
“Battlestar Galactica” – “Blood & Chrome”
“Game of Thrones” – “Valar Dohaeris”
“Inseparable” – “Chernobyl”

Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Broadcast Program
“Banshee” – Pilot
“Da Vinci’s Demons” – “The Lovers”
“Hawaii 5-0” – “Ho’onani Makuakane“
“Mob City” – “A Guy Walks in to A Bar”
“Moonfleet” – “Episode 2”
“The Borgias” – “Relics”

Outstanding Real-Time Visuals in a Video Game
“Call of Duty” – “Ghosts”
“Crysis 3”
“Killzone Shadow Fall”
“NBA 2K14”
“Ryse: Son of Rome”

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Commercial
“Call of Duty: Epic Night Out”
“Galaxy Chauffeur”
“Liberty Group Limited: Answer”
“PETA: 98% Human”
“Sony PlayStation: Perfect Day”

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Special Venue Project
“Hayden Planetarium’s Dark Universe”
“Mysteries of the Unseen World”
“Mystic Manor”
“Space Shuttle Atlantis”
“SpongeBob SquarePants 4D: The Great Jelly Rescue!”

Outstanding Animated Character in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
“Gravity” – Ryan
“Oz the Great and Powerful” – China Girl
“Pacific Rim” – Kaiju – Leatherback
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” – Smaug

Outstanding Animated Character in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
“Epic” – Bomba
“Epic” – Mary Katherine
“Frozen” – Bringing the Snow Queen to Life
“The Croods” – Eep

Outstanding Animated Character in a Commercial or Broadcast Program
“Game of Thrones” – Raising the Dragons
“PETA — 98% Human”
“Smithwick’s” – Squirrel
“Three, The Pony”
“Toy Story of Terror”

Outstanding Created Environment in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
“Elysium” – Torus
“Gravity” – Interior
“Gravity” – Exterior
“Iron Man 3” – Shipyard
“Pacific Rim” – Virtual Hong Kong

Outstanding Created Environment in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
“Epic” – Pod Patch
“Frozen” – Elsa’s Ice Palace
“Monsters University” – Campus
“The Croods” – The Maze

Outstanding Created Environment in a Commercial or Broadcast Program
“Game of Thrones” – The Climb
“Hell On Wheels” – “Big Bad Wolf”
“Inseparable” – “Chernobyl”
Liberty Group Limited — “Answer”

Outstanding Virtual Cinematography in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
“Gravity”
“Iron Man 3”
“Man of Steel”
“Pacific Rim” – Hong Kong Ocean Brawl
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

Outstanding Virtual Cinematography in a Live Action Commercial or Broadcast Program
“Mad Max” – “Ethos”
“Murdered” – “Soul Suspect”
Qualcomm Snapdragon – “A Dragon is Coming”
“The Crew”

Outstanding Models in a Feature Motion Picture
“Gravity” – ISS Exterior
“Pacific Rim”
“Star Trek: Into Darkness”
“The Lone Ranger” – Colby Locomotive

Outstanding FX and Simulation Animation in a Live Action Feature Motion Picture
“Gravity” – Parachute and ISS Destruction
“Man of Steel”
“Pacific Rim” – Fluid Simulation & Destruction
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

Outstanding FX and Simulation Animation in an Animated Feature Motion Picture
“Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2”
“Epic” – Boggan Crowds
“Frozen” – Elsa’s Blizzard
“The Croods”

Outstanding FX and Simulation Animation in a Commercial or Broadcast Program
“PETA: 98% Human”
Sony PlayStation – “Perfect Day”
Toyota Avalon – “Formula”
“Toy Story of Terror”

Outstanding Compositing in a Feature Motion Picture
“Elysium”
“Gravity”
“Iron Man 3” – Barrel of Monkeys
“Iron Man 3” – House Attack
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”

Outstanding Compositing in a Broadcast Program
“Banshee” – Pilot
“Game of Thrones” – The Climb
“The Conquering of Yunkai”
“Vikings” – “Dispossessed”

Outstanding Compositing in a Commercial
“Call of Duty”— “Epic Night Out”
Jean-Paul Gaultier – “The Sailor”
“Mercedes Sensations”
“Sony PlayStation — Greatness Awaits”
“Sony PlayStation — Perfect Day

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Student Project
“Initium”
“Morphium”
“Rugbybugs”
“Runaway”
“Where the Dream Begins”

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